Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA), South Africa’s state-owned rail utility, has issued a Request for Qualifications (RFQ) from private developers to design, fund and build a new deep-water port at Boegoebaai in the Northern Cape province of South Africa, and a new 550km railway to connect it to mining and industrial centres.

The proposed port location is 60km north of Port Nolloth and would need to connect to the Sishen Saldanha iron ore rail line in Kenhardt. The project cost is estimated at ZAR13.8Bn (US$850M) and is primarily targeted at increasing rail capacity for exporting manganese ores from the Kalahari Manganese Fields. The port would be the closest port for manganese at around 800km, compared to the approximately 1,000-1,100km distance to existing ports in Sishen, Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth), Durban and Richards Bay. The designed manganese corridor for South Africa was Hotazel to Gqeberha but this has failed to keep pace with growing demand from the steel industry. In 2019, Transnet allocated 15Mt of rail capacity to manganese ores via all available ports. Nearly 19Mt of ore was exported that year.

China has been the main destination of growing manganese ore exports, feeding the country’s burgeoning steel industry. While China has underpinned growth in seaborne manganese, the narrative is set to change over the energy transition period, as China has already started to put a ceiling on its steel industry and exports have levelled off at around 19Mtpy since 2019. As a result, growth in manganese ore demand will pivot to new steel industry growth poles and opportunities for South African ores to enjoy further growth will depend on captive resources. Project Blue forecasts manganese ore exports from South Africa to increase to over 23Mt by the mid-2020s, benefiting from reserve depletion elsewhere, but the strong growth period of the last two decades is expected to slow significantly.

Building a port in the Northern Cape would remove competition with coal and chromium supply chains mined closer to South Africa’s eastern ports (Durban and Richards Bay), the former of which is currently benefiting from soaring prices and the ability to outbid capacity allocation. Is a new port for manganese a little too late? The main boom has been missed, but South Africa hosts the dominant manganese ore resources and will remain a key source of manganese ores for the global market.