Last week, Bolivia's government declined to name its selection for a partner to develop the country’s lithium resources. 

Bolivia has abundant lithium resources in its Salar de Uyuni, the world's largest salt flat extending over 10km2.  The USGS puts Bolivia’s resources at 21Mt, just under a quarter of global known resources. However, the country has not managed to produce lithium at commercial scale, unlike its “lithium-triangle” neighbours Argentina and Chile. 

Bolivia’s Government hopes that a private sector partner can help develop its lithium riches and has already narrowed the candidate list from wight to six, disqualifying US-based Energy X and Argentina’s Tecpetrol.  However, the Government postponed a final announcement on its selection in May. 

Six firms are still in the running.  Four of these, CATL, Fusion Enertech, TBEA and CITIC Guoan Group, are Chinese.  The others are Russia’s Uranium One, and US start-up Lilac Solutions (backed by BMW, and Bill Gates’s Breakthrough Energy Ventures).  Bolivian officials have suggested that more than one could be eventually selected.

Given the firms in question, the outcome could be of considerable geopolitical consequence.  Bolivian lithium in Russian hands, in particular, would be of significant strategic consequence to the USA – as would more upstream control of the lithium supply chain in Chinese hands.    

Project Blue expects the international scramble for access to Central and South American lithium to continue, but for the process to be a lengthy one.  While there is appetite and a supportive federal structure to investment in Argentina, across the border in Chile the Government continues to focus on the development of a legal framework to sell its concessions.  Meanwhile, Mexico's Congress has approved a bill championed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to nationalise lithium.

Whichever firm is eventually successful in Bolivia may face challenges ahead.  These include technological challenges, local resistance, a limited legal framework, and political challenges including an almost impossible ambition to make lithium-ion batteries locally by 2025.