Namibia Critical Metals released results from its updated PEA, which expands the run-of-mine to 2Mtpy of ore grading 0.1-0.2% total rare earths with a 16-year life-of-mine for the Lofdal heavy rare earth element (HREE) project in Namibia.

A large majority of the world’s HREEs come from ion-adsorption deposits in southern China and across the border in Myanmar. According to Project Blue data, Myanmar now accounts for over 40% of global HREE supply (<10% of light rare earths), a market share that shot up since ion-adsorption clay mines in Southern China were suspended since 2016.

The overall supply-demand balance of rare earths shifts depending on the element most in demand, relative to its supply. In the early 2010s, cerium and lanthanum still were the main elements that determined rare earth supply volumes, but neodymium (and praseodymium) have taken the leading role in rare earth supply dynamics following a three-wave set of price responses that slowly awakened the world to the importance of rare earth magnets to electric vehicles and wind turbines. Their use in other energy-saving technologies is yet to earn a place on the mantel in terms of global attention. With the supply of HREEs restricted in Southern China and growing demand for terbium and dysprosium in electric vehicle drivetrain magnets, these two elements are set to take over the driving seat for the supply dynamics of the suite of rare earths.

As rare earth supply chains outside of China strive to attain independence, there is a race to secure potential feed. For now, the only significant consumer of rare earths into functional magnets is Japan, which has invested in Lofdal through an agreement with JOGMEC to acquire a growing interest as exploration advances. Project Blue forecasts heavy rare earths to enter a tight market and supply scenarios that meet HREE demand growth trends would alleviate the current supply tightness of lighter rare earths neodymium and praseodymium.