The BRICS summit held in Johannesburg last week ended with the inclusion of six new countries into the group. It marks an important development for the organisation but raises many questions about its outlook and direction.  

"BRICS" is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The term was originally coined in 2001 as "BRIC" by Goldman Sachs’ economist Jim O'Neill. In December 2010, South Africa joined the informal group, and the acronym was changed to BRICS. Originally, the group had little homogeneity, barring the fact that it represented the world’s largest developing economies. In recent years, the organisation has raised its profile, appealing more and more to countries seeking a counterweight to political and economic Western dominance. 

In 2022, the five countries accounted for 40% of the world population and over 25% of world GDP. China leads the pack in terms of contribution to both accounting for around 40% of BRICS’ population and 70% of BRICS’ GDP.

The group having taken new members for the first time since South Africa joined in 2010, raises the question of what might be expected in terms of the group’s future direction. Project Blue believes that there may be different visions within the group. The China-Russia tandem aims at creating an anti-Western alliance, under China’s political and economic leadership. This view may not be shared by Brazil, India and South Africa who would likely prefer the group to evolve towards a non-aligned structure, not unsimilar to the Non-Aligned Movement created in 1961, which took a neutral stance between the USA and the Soviet Bloc.

The six newly admitted members are Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, a mix of countries united by their diversity more than by a common denominator. Most of the new entrants will likely be looking to balance their alliances rather than cutting their links with the West, although the admission of Iran is clearly a win for the China-Russia tandem. Adding Saudi Arabia and the UAE also suits China’s interests and fits with its aim to reduce the role of the US dollar, something that appears unlikely for the foreseeable. Meanwhile, by cutting its oil production regardless of US opposition, Saudi Arabia has indicated its desire to distance itself from its main ally. The inclusion of Egypt and Ethiopia appears primarily driven by geopolitics and in the case of Ethiopia by its potential infrastructure opportunities, supported by its large population. Meanwhile, championed by Brazil, Argentina could see in China a way to rely less on the IMF to support its chronically sick economy (while China has an eye on Argentina’s lithium reserves). 

The BRICS’ expansion has certainly boosted the organisation’s profile. Its eleven members now account for nearly 50% of the world’s population, 29% of the world’s GDP and 46% of oil production, but the future shape of the BRICS remains unclear. Many countries are willing to join but others will be wary of being entangled in geopolitical alliances without being sure of the economic benefits that membership to the group will bring. 

For all the uncertainty it raises, the attraction of BRICS to many developing countries cannot and should not be dismissed. It is symptomatic of an age of more turbulent geopolitics with an increasingly confrontational relationship between China and the USA at its centre. The role that the BRICS may play in this context is still unknown and the group will face more questions and challenges over the coming years. One of them will be to find a new acronym. That could be the simplest one.