In the solar cell sector, cell supply has outweighed demand amid rising new capacity in China, leading to declining cell prices since early September. 

Cell prices began declining in September for the first time in the quarter after remaining flat in August. This trend was most likely the result of cell output excessively outpacing cell demand.

In early October, Mono M10 and G12 cell prices momentarily stabilised at US$0.0814/W and US$0.0836/W FOB China, respectively, as a result of limited activities during Golden Week in China. At this point, cell manufacturers were maintaining a profit margin of approximately 10% to 15%. However, in late October, prices dropped again, with Mono M10 and G12 cell prices reaching new lows of US$0.0603/W and US$0.0645/W FOB China, respectively, by the end of the month.

As some module producers curtailed production, demand for cells from downstream module producers declined. Cell manufacturers are now engaged in a price war, competing to achieve higher sales volumes, with some manufacturers indicating that they are now losing revenue on sales. Decreased operating rates have been attributed to prices stabilising in early November.

China is expected to dominate solar manufacturing over the next decade, with the Global Energy Monitor estimating that China’s 2030 national target of 1.2TW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy capacity will be met by as early as 2025. As capacity in China expands and the USA moves to secure its domestic supply chain in order to rely less on imports of cells and related materials from Asia, prices are expected to be impacted.

According to Project Blue data, several sectors will see their solar market share increase significantly. Silicon leads the pack, with solar PV forecast to account for 37% of silicon metal demand by 2050, up from 27% this year. Antimony has seen a recent surge in demand from solar PV glass in a move to improve efficiency and the industry could account for 32% of non-metallurgical antimony demand by 2050. Gallium sees the largest market share percentage change of some of the minor metals, with solar demand soaring from 7% in 2023 to over 30% by 2050. Precious metal silver will also see its market share in solar PV increase to nearly one quarter of its total demand by 2050, adding pressure to by-product supply chains.