The climate talks ended with a deal committing to a “transition away” from fossil fuels.

More than 190 nations accepted a text that calls on the world to “transition away” from fossil fuels. The text that was agreed upon binds countries to embark on a move away from fossil fuels but stops short of requiring them to do so. Many countries and advocacy groups had pushed for a commitment to “phase out” fossil fuels but in light of the considerable opposition from petrostates, such a move was likely never on the cards. 

The outcome is significant and historic. Nearly every country in the world has agreed to transition away from fossil fuels and it is the first time such an agreement has been reached in 28 years of international climate negotiations. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President and the UAE host of the conference, hailed the adoption of the text, calling the “UAE consensus” a “world-first” achievement. Meanwhile, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change suggested that the deal signals the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance. 

But many, including environmental groups and small island states, believe that the outcome of 2023 conference isn’t strong enough.  Some are concerned that the outcomes of COP28 have not done enough to tackle the challenges facing developing nations and emerging economies, while others are concerned about "loopholes" and that the focus on “transitioning” and “carbon capture” leaves plenty of room for the fossil fuel industry to manoeuvre.

COP 29 will convene in November 2024 and is expected to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan. While Azerbaijan's oil production and human rights record will be under close scrutiny, the progress achieved at COP28 will give participants a historic consensus to build upon. 

Meanwhile, despite geopolitical wranglings over the language of the “global stocktake” and related issues, energy transition continues to gain (albeit geographically uneven) momentum. Political will is considerable in many parts of the world, investment is ramping up, and technological gains are helping to make energy transition make economic sense as well as environmental sense. While climate progress seems insufficient to some, and “glacial at best” to others, the rate of change is set to accelerate markedly over the years ahead.