What will the president’s re-election mean for copper and cobalt producers? 

President Felix Tshisekedi won re-election with 73% of the vote according to the country’s election commission. Moise Katumbi, a businessman, finished second with 18% of the vote. He, together with eight other opposition candidates, however, signed a declaration rejecting what they described as a “sham” election, calling for a rerun.

Assuming no rerun, the results should mean “business as usual” for the DRC’s copper and cobalt supply chains. However, as the past two years have seen some tensions between the government and foreign miners operating DRC copper and cobalt assets, it remains to be seen what “business as usual” will mean. Specifically, the market will be keen to determine whether the Tshisekedi regime’s seemingly combative stance signals future intent or whether it was simply robust rhetoric ahead of an election. 

The DRC Government has taken a robust stance with foreign miners over the past two years, with the Tshisekedi regime having been critical of some of the deals struck in the past. The highest profile fallout saw the DRC Government block exports from the Tenke Fungurume (TFM) operation between July 2022 and April 2023. The ban was the result of a dispute between CMOC, which owns 80% of TFM, and Gécamines, which holds the other 20% – specifically related to allegations (denied by CMOC) that CMOC had underestimated reserve levels and reduced royalties due to Gécamines. The total amount of the settlement payment resolving the dispute was US$800M, payable by TFM to Gécamines over six years from 2023 to 2028. As part of the terms, Gécamines is entitled to 20% of the total value of the project’s subcontracting and the right to acquire a volume of production proportional to its 20% stake in TFM on market terms and in compliance with Congolese laws.

CMOC isn’t the only company to fall foul of DRC criticism. It was reported by Bloomberg in August that ERG got a wrap on the knuckles for being too slow with project development. Then In October 2023, ERG announced that it is constructing a new hydrometallurgical facility at its Comide mine to be completed in 2025. 

In December, a Reuters article suggests that Gécamines will push to secure the rights to buy copper and cobalt at mines it has holdings in, as it attempts to build its own stocks and trade the metals. According to the article in order to secure the rights, DRC state-owned miner Gécamines needs to amend some terms of its joint venture agreements in the DRC. The Gécamines Chairman, Guy Robert Lukama, is quoted as saying that the JV partners "…can no longer get all the offtake of the production". Lukama reportedly told Reuters that Gécamines wants to be able to buy copper and cobalt proportional to its stakes in joint ventures.